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New York Film Critics Awards Predictions: Will Tom Cruise and ‘Tár’ Kick Off Their Oscar Runs?

The first major critics' group names its best of 2022 and will give indications to frontrunners for the Academy Awards

Cate Blanchett - Tar - Tom Cruise - Top Gun Maverick

The first phase of the awards season will be fully underway starting in the Big Apple. Beginning with the Gotham Awards where “Everything Everywhere All at Once” triumphed, the New York Film Critics Circle will be the first major group of film journalists to reveal its winners on Friday, Dec. 2.

Members of NYFCC will be voting without seeing James Cameron’s sci-fi spectacle “Avatar: The Way of Water” and Marc Forster’s Tom Hanks-starrer “A Man Called Otto.” The first screening for Kasi Lemmons’ Whitney Houston biopic “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” with Naomi Ackie took place on Wednesday evening, but it’s unclear how many of the members, if any, attended. Reactions to the film are also under embargo for several weeks.

Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) Allyson Riggs/Courtesy of A24

NYFCC loves deep and rich narratives (i.e., Todd Haynes’ “Carol”) and rarely falls for the presumed Academy frontrunner. The group’s best film winner has only matched the Oscar winner for best picture once in the last 11 years, with Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist.” However, informal polling and research of members’ reviews reveal that there are many lovers of Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” in the NYFCC’s ranks. There are also ardent defenders of Todd Field’s “Tár” and the Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” In the case of the latter, Ke Huy Quan could be a no-brainer in the acting field after his powerful Gotham speech, while I suspect many voters will go to bat for the incredible Stephanie Hsu, who plays the dual roles of daughter Joy Wang and the villainous Jobu Tupaki.

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Nevertheless, don’t ever count out possible wildcard choices being made, such as “Top Gun: Maverick.” Following in the vein of the group selecting Lady Gaga for “House of Gucci” last year, Tom Cruise could be their jaw-dropping best actor choice.

The group is also not immune to a recency bias, proven by their 2013 pick of “American Hustle” from David O. Russell, which they viewed the day before voting. That could be helpful for Antoine Fuqua’s “Emancipation” or perhaps even Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon,” which has passionate followers.

Many of the members are fans of James Gray’s personal drama “Armageddon Time,” which could pop up for screenplay or land Jeremy Strong a supporting actor nod. Meanwhile, many are huge fans of Rian Johnson’s whodunit sequel “Glass Onion,” which could be a surprise winner with preferential voting taking place (or perhaps its actors Janelle Monáe or Kate Hudson).

The top five predictions for NYFCC are down below. Make sure to bookmark the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines for the season.

Best Film:

  1. “Tár” (Focus Features)
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  4. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
  5. “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)

Director:

  1. Todd Field, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  2. Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  4. Park Chan-wook, “Decision to Leave” (Mubi)
  5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (Netflix)

Actor:

  1. Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
  2. Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)
  3. Bill Nighy, “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  4. Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  5. Paul Mescal, “Aftersun” (A24)

Actress:

  1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
  2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)

Supporting Actor:

  1. Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  2. Jeremy Strong, “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)
  3. Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
  5. Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Supporting Actress:

  1. Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  2. Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  3. Nina Hoss, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  4. Janelle Monáe, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
  5. Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Best Screenplay:

  1. “Tár” (Focus Features) – Todd Field
  2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
  3. “Aftersun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  4. “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Sarah Polley
  5. “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features) – James Gray

Animated Film:

  1. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24) – Dean Fleischer-Camp (director and producer), Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Terry Leonard, Paul Mezey, Jenny Slate (producers)
  2. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro (director, producer), Mark Gustafson (director), Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar (producers)
  3. “Turning Red” (Pixar) – Domee Shi (director), Lindsey Collins (producer)
  4. “Eternal Spring” (ARTE) – Jason Loftus (director, producer), Kevin Koo, Yvan Pinard (producers)
  5. “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” (20th Century Studios) – Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman, George Chang, Janelle Momary, Nora Smith

Best Cinematography:

  1. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Claudio Miranda
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) – Janusz Kaminski
  3. “Athena” (Netflix) – Matias Boucard
  4. “Nope” (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
  5. “Tár” (Focus Features) – Florian Hoffmeister

Best Non-Fiction Film:

  1. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon) – Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers)
  2. “All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films/Sideshow) – Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers)
  3. “Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon) – Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers)
  4. “The Territory” (National Geographic) – Alex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida
  5. “Descendant” (Netflix) – Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers)

Best Foreign Language Film:

  1. “Close” (Belgium)
  2. “Return to Seoul” (Cambodia)
  3. “Holy Spider” (Denmark)
  4. “Saint Omer” (France)
  5. “EO” (Poland)

Best First Film:

  1. “Aftersun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  2. “The Inspection” (A24) – Elegance Bratton
  3. “Nanny” (Amazon Studios) – Nikyatu Jusu
  4. “Emily” (Bleecker Street) – Frances O’Connor
  5. “Murina” (Kino Lorber) – Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović

Note: The group typically names special awards to an organization or person.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub. The first set of SAG Awards predictions for film has also been revealed.

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