2025 Tony Winners Predictions: A Starry, Stacked Broadway Season Sets the Stage for an Unpredictable Ceremony

“Buena Vista Social Club“
“Dead Outlaw“
“Death Becomes Her“
“Maybe Happy Ending” ***
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”

Will Win: “Maybe Happy Ending”
Could Win: “Buena Vista Social Club”
Should Win: “Maybe Happy Ending”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Real Women Have Curves”

“Maybe Happy Ending” — a Korean-born musical about robots in love — has been a critical fave since it opened in the fall, and since then the unexpectedly touching, near-future fable has gained box office staying power and industry support. In the last month or so, the show has also swept the top musical trophies from the New York Drama Critics’ Circle, the Drama Desk, the Drama League, and the Outer Critics Circle.

The musical stands poised to nab another big win at the Tonys, garnering more consistent support for Best Musical than other contenders that have become critical or popular successes like “Dead Outlaw,” “Death Becomes Her” or “Operation Mincemeat.”

Not every voter, however, loves “Maybe Happy Ending” unabashedly — and a lot of those dissenters checked the box for “Buena Vista Social Club,” the elegantly staged and sonically rich adaptation of the 1999 documentary about the eponymous Cuban band. It’s the contender with the strongest chance of an upset victory in this category.

“English“
“The Hills of California“
“John Proctor is the Villain“
“Oh, Mary!”
“Purpose” ***

Will Win: “Purpose”
Could Win: “Oh, Mary!”
Should Win: “Purpose”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Cult of Love”

It was a strong season for new plays, and this category includes not one but two winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Drama (“English” and “Purpose”). Jez Butterworth’s elegiac play “The Hills of California” was much admired, but both it and Sanaz Toosi’s “English” suffer from having ended their limited runs months ago. Meanwhile, the still-running “John Proctor is the Villain” has found fans for its youthful energy and vibrant, satisfying climax, but voters here seem to admire the production more than the play itself.

That leaves Cole Escola’s anarchic, downtown comedy “Oh, Mary!,” which could ride a wave of midtown popularity (and consistent box office power) to a win in the category for Best Play. But the more likely winner here is “Purpose,” Branden Jacobs-Jenkins finely detailed family drama — with plenty of comedy — about a prominent Black family at a moment of tension and transition. It’s the one most survey respondents say they voted for, and it doesn’t hurt that the play has also picked up kudos from the Pulitzer board, the Drama Desk, and the New York Drama Critics Circle.

“Floyd Collins“
“Gypsy“
“Pirates! The Penzance Musical“
“Sunset Boulevard” ***

Will Win: “Sunset Blvd.”
Could Win: “Gypsy”
Should Win: “Sunset Blvd.”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Once Upon a Mattress”

“Sunset” or “Gypsy”? It’s been one of the biggest questions all season, as these two major musical revivals, each headlined by a powerhouse performance, have drawn plaudits and fans since they opened in the winter. And it’s a question that won’t have a final answer until Sunday night.

We’re guessing that the prize goes to “Sunset Blvd.,” director Jamie Lloyd’s radical reimaging of the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical, powered by a breakout performance by Nicole Scherzinger, a bravura integration of screens and live video, and a spectacular sequence in which the leading man sings the title song outside the theater on 44th Street. But Lloyd’s signature aesthetic isn’t universally beloved, and those that aren’t “Sunset” fans cast their votes for “Gypsy,” with enthusiasm for director George Wolfe’s staging carried by the performance of Audra McDonald, starring as Broadway’s first Momma Rose. If the trophy doesn’t go to “Sunset” on Sunday night, it’ll go to “Gypsy.”

“Eureka Day”
“Romeo + Juliet“
“Thornton Wilder’s Our Town“
“Yellow Face” ***

Will Win: “Yellow Face”
Could Win: “Eureka Day”
Should Win: “Yellow Face”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Glengarry Glen Ross”

It wasn’t the strongest year for play revivals, and even a couple of the year’s top sellers, “Othello” and “Glengarry Glen Ross,” earned mixed reviews and got left out of the Tony spotlight. There are two big contenders for this one: “Eureka Day,” Jonathan Spector’s winning comedy about a hoity-toity Berkeley private school struggling — sensitively! — to outline a vaccination policy; and “Yellow Face,” David Henry Hwang’s semi-autobiographical 2007 comedy.

“Yellow Face” looks like the frontrunner here, thanks to a strong production and a storyline that’s set in the 90s but still richly relevant in its farcical depiction of race, identity and the theater industry. But “Eureka Day” has a lot of support too, driven in large part by a standout sequence in which a school community meeting, held over Zoom, goes hilariously awry.

Darren Criss
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Andrew Durand
“Dead Outlaw”
Tom Francis
“Sunset Boulevard”
Jonathan Groff ***
“Just in Time”
James Monroe Iglehart
“A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical”
Jeremy Jordan
“Floyd Collins”

Will Win: Jonathan Groff, “Just in Time”
Could Win: Darren Criss, “Maybe Happy Ending”
Should Win: Darren Criss, “Maybe Happy Ending”
Should Have Been Nominated: John Gallagher, Jr., “Swept Away”

In a year of uncertainty, this is one of the awards that feels close to a sure thing. Jonathan Groff may have just won a Tony in this same category last year (for “Merrily We Roll Along”), but that hasn’t stopped voters from rallying behind him again for giving a show-carrying performance as Bobby Darin in the bio-musical “Just in Time.”

The love for Groff is near-universal, so he seems like a safe bet here. But some voters are lending notable support to Darren Criss, giving a charming and physically precise performance as a helper-bot in “Maybe Happy Ending.” If anyone has a chance to unseat Groff this year, it’s Criss.

Megan Hilty
“Death Becomes Her”
Audra McDonald ***
“Gypsy”
Jasmine Amy Rogers
“BOOP! The Musical”
Nicole Scherzinger
“Sunset Boulevard”
Jennifer Simard
“Death Becomes Her”

Will Win: Audra McDonald, “Gypsy”
Could Win: Nicole Scherzinger, “Sunset Boulevard”
Should Win: Nicole Scherzinger, “Sunset Boulevard”
Should Have Been Nominated: Helen J. Shen, “Maybe Happy Ending”

Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard, both nominated for their lead perfs in “Death Becomes Her,” are Broadway favorites, and newcomer Jasmine Amy Rogers is giving one of the breakout performances of the year in “Boop!” None of those deserving women stand a chance against this category’s two headliners: Audra McDonald in “Gypsy” and Nicole Scherzinger in “Sunset Blvd.”

Of all the races this season, this one may be the closest. Most voter believe the award will go to Scherzinger, who, despite an early social-media mishap involving Russell Brand and a MAGA-adjacent hat, has earned a lot of love for a career-defining performance. She was also the sole winner of the award for distinguished performance at the 2025 Drama League Awards.

But of the voters Variety talked to, most of them said they voted for McDonald, and even those who don’t love the overall production of “Gypsy” acknowledge that McDonald is doing breathtaking, ultimately devastating work as Momma Rose. Plus, her profile got a boost in the recent dust-up over Patti LuPone’s controversial comments in a recently New Yorker profile. All of that could mean that this year, McDonald notches a record-breaking, seventh Tony win.

George Clooney
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
Cole Escola ***
“Oh, Mary!”
Jon Michael Hill
“Purpose”
Daniel Dae Kim
“Yellow Face”
Harry Lennix
“Purpose”
Louis McCartney
“Stranger Things: The First Shadow”

Will Win: Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”
Could Win: Against Escola? Like, literally no one. Not even Clooney.
Should Win: Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”
Should Have Been Nominated: Kit Connor, “Romeo + Juliet”

Okay, this is the one category this year that you can bet the farm on: Cole Escola will win for their deranged, riotous portrait of Mary Todd Lincoln as a hard-drinking, aspiring cabaret performer in “Oh, Mary!” The actor’s skillfully over-the-top turn defines the whole vibe of a show they also wrote, and of a production has become a surprise Broadway success. Voters are eager to reward them for creating and headlining one of the season’s biggest buzzmagnets.

Laura Donnelly
“The Hills of California”
Mia Farrow
“The Roommate”
LaTanya Richardson Jackson
“Purpose”
Sadie Sink
“John Proctor is the Villain”
Sarah Snook ***
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”

Will Win: Sarah Snook, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Could Win: LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “Purpose”
Should Win: LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “Purpose”
Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel Zegler, “Romeo + Juliet”

Broadway didn’t fall in love with director Kip Williams’ technologically ambitious adaptation of “The Picture of Dorian Gray,” but even the haters tip their hat to the show’s one actor, Emmy winner Sarah Snook (“Succession”), giving a chameleonic performance playing every character in the story, both on stage and on the set’s many screens. With the showiest of performances in the category, Snook seems likely to take the prize.

Still, Laura Donnelly has a lot of admirers for “The Hills of California,” and Sadie Sink gets some love too for “John Proctor in the Villain.” But the actress most likely to supplant Snook here is LaTanya Richardson Jackson, the well-liked veteran giving a formidable turn as the matriarch in “Purpose.”

Brooks Ashmanskas
“Smash”
Jeb Brown
“Dead Outlaw”
Danny Burstein
“Gypsy”
Jak Malone ***
“Operation Mincemeat”
Taylor Trensch
“Floyd Collins”

Will Win: Jak Malone, “Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Could Win: Danny Burstein, “Gypsy”
Should Win: Jak Malone, “Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Should Have Been Nominated: Thom Sesma, “Dead Outlaw”

Actor Jak Malone has the standout song in the clever Brit import “Operation Mincemeat,” and, after winning an Olivier for his touching turn as MI5 staffer Hester Leggatt, he’ll likely get a Tony for his performance, too. His real competition, however, is beloved Broadway regular Danny Burstein, who’s giving a textured performance as Herbie in “Gypsy.”

Natalie Venetia Belcon ***
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Julia Knitel
“Dead Outlaw”
Gracie Lawrence
“Just in Time”
Justina Machado
“Real Women Have Curves”
Joy Woods
“Gypsy”

Will Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Could Win: Justina Machado, “Real Women Have Curves: The Musical”
Should Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Should Have Been Nominated: Lea Salonga, “Old Friends”

“Buena Vista Social Club” has a lot of supporters among voters, and many of them are ready to hand this award to Natalie Venetia Belcon, giving a standout performance as one of Cuba’s musical legends, Omara Portuondo. She’ll likely take home the prize, but don’t count out Justina Machado, who turned heads for her confident, appealing turn in “Real Women Have Curves.”

Glenn Davis
“Purpose”
Gabriel Ebert
“John Proctor is the Villain”
Francis Jue ***
“Yellow Face”
Bob Odenkirk
“Glengarry Glen Ross”
Conrad Ricamora
“Oh, Mary!”

Will Win: Francis Jue, “Yellow Face”
Could Win: Bob Odenkirk, “Glengarry Glen Ross”
Should Win: Francis Jue, “Yellow Face”
Should Have Been Nominated: Michael McKean, “Glengarry Glen Ross”

Francis Jue is a well-liked, theater-world stalwart, and most voters we talked to feel like Jue deserves this award not just for his delightful work in “Yellow Face” but for the overall excellence of a long career. Still, a couple of actors might slip into the lead instead: Either Conrad Ricamora, the popular stage veteran playing an absurdist take on Abraham Lincoln in “Oh, Mary!,” or Bob Odenkirk, offering an assured turn as a past-his-prime real estate salesman struggling to stay in the game in “Glengarry Glen Ross”

Tala Ashe
“English”
Jessica Hecht
“Eureka Day”
Marjan Neshat
“English”
Fina Strazza
“John Proctor is the Villain”
Kara Young ***
“Purpose”

Will Win: Kara Young, “Purpose”
Could Win: Jessica Hecht, “Eureka Day”
Should Win: Kara Young, “Purpose”
Should Have Been Nominated: Alana Arenas, “Purpose”

One of Broadway’s most beloved talents, Jessica Hecht, has never won a Tony Award, and this year she’s nominated for a third time for her comic but deeply human turn as an antivaxxer in “Eureka Day.” A lot of voters admire not just her performance in that show but her body of work overall, so she’s got a real chance in this category. But based on the voters Variety surveyed this year, it looks like the prize is going, for a second year in a row, to rising star Kara Young, who last year won for her showstopping comic turn in “Purlie Victorious” and is now giving an electric performance in “Purpose.”

Saheem Ali
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Michael Arden ***
“Maybe Happy Ending”
David Cromer
“Dead Outlaw”
Christopher Gattelli
“Death Becomes Her”
Jamie Lloyd
“Sunset Boulevard”

Will Win: Michael Arden, “Maybe Happy Ending”
Could Win: Jamie Lloyd, “Sunset Blvd.”
Should Win: Jamie Lloyd, “Sunset Blvd.”
Should Have Been Nominated: Sergio Trujillo, “Real Women Have Curves”

Michael Arden has a lot of voter support for his staging of “Maybe Happy Ending,” which matches an emotionally intimate story with a spectacular, innovative production design. Among voters surveyed, he got the most votes, but a lot of votes also went to Jamie Lloyd for his radical rethink of “Sunset Blvd.” This one seems neck and neck, but by our count, the edge goes to Arden.

Knud Adams
“English”
Sam Mendes
“The Hills of California”
Sam Pinkleton ***
“Oh, Mary”
Danya Taymor
“John Proctor is the Villain”
Kip Williams
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”

Will Win: Sam Pinkleton, “Oh, Mary!”
Could Win: Danya Taymor, “John Proctor is the Villain”
Should Win: Sam Pinkleton, “Oh, Mary!”
Should Have Been Nominated: David Cromer, “Good Night, and Good Luck”

The comedy hit “Oh, Mary!” is a fast-and-furious tightrope walk of campy extremes, and the majority of voters are ready to reward director Sam Pinkleton for his contribution to making it all work as well as it does. He seems like the winner here — although many voters also admire director Danya Taymor’s persuasive work in “John Proctor is the Villain.”

“Dead Outlaw” ***
Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
“Death Becomes Her”
Music & Lyrics: Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Music: Will Aronson; Lyrics: Will Aronson and Hue Park
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Music & Lyrics: David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
“Real Women Have Curves: The Musical”
Music & Lyrics: Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez

Will Win: “Dead Outlaw,” Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Could Win: “Maybe Happy Ending,” Music: Will Aronson; Lyrics: Will Aronson and Hue Park
Should Win: “Dead Outlaw,” Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Should Have Been Nominated: “Smash,” Music: Marc Shaiman; Lyrics: Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman

As much of a critical favorite as “Maybe Happy Ending,” “Dead Outlaw” is most likely to be rewarded at the Tonys for its catchy score of countrified rock tunes (plus a little jazz to mix it up). It’s the show that seems to have the most consistent support in this category, although “Death Becomes Her” could sweep in here, as could “Maybe Happy Ending,” which has plenty of backers in this category too.

“Buena Vista Social Club”
Marco Ramirez
“Dead Outlaw”
Itamar Moses
“Death Becomes Her”
Marco Pennette
“Maybe Happy Ending” ***
Will Aronson and Hue Park
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts

Will Win: “Maybe Happy Ending,” Will Aronson and Hue Park
Could Win: “Death Becomes Her,” Marco Pennette
Should Win: “Maybe Happy Ending,” Will Aronson and Hue Park
Should Have Been Nominated: “Real Women Have Curves: The Musical,” Lisa Loomer and Nell Benjamin

It’s looking like “Maybe Happy Ending,” the frontrunner for Best Musical, will also win either the award for book or the award for score — but not both. Which of the two the show takes home, though, is something of an open question, based on the voters surveyed by Variety. Our guess? “Maybe Happy Ending” gets the trophy for book, thanks to its clever, emotionally resonant story that surprised many voters into caring about a romance between two robots.

But if it doesn’t go to “Maybe Happy Ending,” look for the prize to go to Marco Pennette for his canny, contemporary adaptation of “Death Becomes Her,” packed with plenty of laughs.

Joshua Bergasse
“Smash”
Camille A. Brown
“Gypsy”
Christopher Gattelli
“Death Becomes Her”
Jerry Mitchell ***
“Boop! The Musical”
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck
“Buena Vista Social Club”

Will Win: Jerry Mitchell, “Boop! The Musical”
Could Win: Camille A. Brown, “Gypsy”
Should Win: Camille A. Brown, “Gypsy”
Should Have Been Nominated: Warren Carlyle, “Pirates! The Penzance Musical”

“Boop!” doesn’t have many fans among voters, but for a lot of them, the dance sequences — particularly a cleverly staged number that flips between a full-color world and a black-and-white one — were the standout element. Jerry Mitchell, the show’s choreographer, seems to have the most voter support here, although a fair number of voters have thrown their support behind Camille A. Brown (“Gypsy”), a rising talent who’s been nominated five times but never won. Also in the running: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck for their sinuous work in “Buena Vista Social Club.”

Will Aronson
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Bruce Coughlin
“Floyd Collins”
David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber
“Sunset Boulevard”
Marco Paguia ***
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber
“Just in Time”

Will Win: “Buena Vista Social Club”
Could Win: “Just in Time”

David Bergman and Marg Horwell
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Miriam Buether and 59 Productions ***
“Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Marsha Ginsberg
“English”
Rob Howell
“The Hills of California”
Scott Pask
“Good Night, and Good Luck”

Will Win: “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Could Win: “Good Night, and Good Luck”

Rachel Hauck
“Swept Away”
Dane Laffrey and George Reeve ***
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Arnulfo Maldonado
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Derek McLane
“Death Becomes Her”
Derek McLane
“Just in Time”

Will Win: “Maybe Happy Ending”
Could Win: “Death Becomes Her”

Brenda Abbandandolo
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
Marg Horwell
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Rob Howell
“The Hills of California”
Holly Pierson ***
“Oh, Mary!”
Brigitte Reiffenstuel
“Stranger Things: The First Shadow”

Will Win: “Oh, Mary!”
Could Win: “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”

Dede Ayite
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Gregg Barnes
“Boop! The Musical”
Clint Ramos
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Paul Tazewell ***
“Death Becomes Her”
Catherine Zuber
“Just in Time”

Will Win: “Death Becomes Her”
Could Win: “Boop! The Musical”

David Bengali and Heather Gilbert
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
Natasha Chivers
“The Hills of California”
Jon Clark ***
“Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski
“John Proctor Is the Villain”
Nick Schlieper
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”

Will Win: “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Could Win: “John Proctor Is the Villain”

Jack Knowles ***
“Sunset Boulevard”
Tyler Micoleau
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Ben Stanton
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Ruey Horng Sun and Scott Zielinski
“Floyd Collins”
Justin Townsend
“Death Becomes Her”

Will Win: “Sunset Boulevard”
Could Win: “Maybe Happy Ending”

Paul Arditti
“Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Palmer Hefferan ***
“John Proctor Is the Villain”
Daniel Kluger
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
Nick Powell
“The Hills of California”
Clemence Williams
“The Picture of Dorian Gray”

Will Win: “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Could Win: “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”

Jonathan Deans
“Buena Vista Social Club”
Adam Fisher ***
“Sunset Boulevard”
Peter Hylenski
“Just in Time”
Peter Hylenski
“Maybe Happy Ending”
Dan Moses Schreier
“Floyd Collins”

Will Win: “Sunset Boulevard”
Could Win: “Buena Vista Social Club”

Presented by The Broadway League and the American Theatre Wing, the Tony Awards honor excellence in Broadway theatre and remain the most prestigious recognition in American stage performance. Leadership at The Broadway League includes Chair Kristin Caskey and Interim President Jason Laks, while the American Theatre Wing is helmed by Chair Emilio Sosa and President & CEO Heather A. Hitchens.