India’s cotton area, which saw a decline of 10 per cent during the kharif 2024 season, is likely to shrink further this year as farmers are seen moving to other alternatives like maize and groundnut. Industry stakeholders are having a mixed opinion on the upcoming 2025-26 season, for which the planting has already begun in north India and parts of south India, where the monsoon has made an early onset.

“Cotton area will be down in central India, which accounts for about 66 per cent of the area and crop in the country. However, in north and south India, it may increase. The overall cotton area in the country may come down by 7-8 per cent,” Atul S Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI) told businessline. In Gujarat, farmers will likely shift from cotton to groundnut, while in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, they are shifting to maize, Ganatra said.

“Farmers are not interested in growing cotton because of the low yields and higher expenses and cost of labour. Also, farmers have other options that can fetch them better returns,” Ganatra said.

Poor conditions

Bhagirath Chaudhary, founder director of South Asia Biotechnology Centre in Jodhpur, said the cotton season has commenced on a sluggish note, marked by delayed sowing across the North cotton growing zone. “The late release of canal water has significantly dampened the morale of cotton farmers in the region. Currently, only about 65–70 per cent of the sowing has been completed. Crop conditions remain poor, with weak plant stands attributed to extreme heat, lack of irrigation water, and recurring sandstorms,” Chaudhary said.

“Adding to the challenges is a growing disconnect between the centre and north cotton-growing states, with no clear roadmap yet for the implementation of the much-anticipated Technology Mission on Cotton 2.0. As a result, the cotton cultivation area in north India appears set to decline for the fifth consecutive year,” Chaudhary said.

Recently, the US Department of Agriculture, which has forecast a steady global consumption during 2025-26, projected a 2 per cent decline in India’s cotton production during the 2025-26 season, starting October at 24.5 million bales of 480 pounds each, down from 25 million bales in the previous season. It expects the cotton area to be similar to last year’s level of 11.80 million hectare.

Market weak

Meanwhile, the cotton market remains weak amid low demand and uncertain global trends. “Despite the current market conditions, cotton sowing for the upcoming season is expected to be strong. In fact, the early arrival of the monsoon could lead to an increase in the sown area across several states. Even dryland farmers are likely to take up cotton cultivation this year, supported by favourable weather and improved water availability,” said Ramanuj Das Boob, a sourcing agent in Raichur and vice president of All India Cotton Brokers Association.

“However, global cotton markets have not been supportive, further dampening sentiment and price movement. Domestically, cotton availability remains sufficient and is expected to last until the arrival of the new crop,” Das Boob said.

“In regions like Adoni, Yemmiganur, Nandyal (Andhra Pradesh), and Bellary (Karnataka), early sowing has already been completed using borewell and well water. Recent rainfall has further boosted crop prospects, and arrivals from these areas could begin as early as September,” he said.

“Given the current dynamics, the market is likely to remain range-bound until the new season. Once again, the onus may fall on CCI to intervene and plan purchases in the next cycle. With weak market demand and steady sowing progress, a significant carryover stock with CCI appears inevitable going into the next year,” Das Boob said. With prices remaining below the minimum support price levels, the CCI had procured over 1 crore bales during the 2024-25 season.

Published on May 26, 2025