The Israeli military claims it has destroyed one-third of Iran’s long-range surface-to-surface missile launchers since the start of the conflict. For now, however, Iran is still launching missile strikes against Israel, with overnight attacks having killed at least eight people, according to Israeli sources.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says that it has “destroyed over 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers” since the current fighting began last Friday. “This amounts to one-third of the surface-to-surface missile launchers possessed by the Iranian regime,” the IDF contends.
This number indicates that the IDF is referring only to long-range ballistic surface-to-surface missile launchers, with the reach to attack targets in Israel. The IDF also specifically described attacks on launchers, rather than the missiles fired from them, of which Iran has many more examples. It should also be noted that some of the launchers are housed in caves, while others are dispersed. It isn’t clear how many launchers left their caves once the fighting started, or if Israel has sealed some of them in with strikes on the entrances to those caves.
Back in 2022, U.S. Central Command assessed that Iran’s long-range missile arsenal numbered over 3,000, a figure that would have continued to grow at least until last year, when several hundred were expended against Israel.
Returning to the current conflict, there are also assessments that Iran started out with between 750 and 1,000 ballistic missiles with enough range to strike Israel. Of these, 370 are said to have been fired at Iran, meaning that between a third and half of these weapons have now been expended. It should be noted that hunting down these weapons is a significant challenge and one that is greatly complicated by the long distances at which Israeli fighter jets have to operate, with only a limited aerial tanker capacity available.
In addition, Iran still possesses large numbers of land-attack cruise missiles and dozens of types of attack drones.
As the campaign continued overnight, the IDF says that around 50 of its fighters destroyed more than 20 surface-to-surface missiles “minutes before they were to be launched toward Israel’s home front.”
New imagery has also emerged showing the aftermath of previous Israeli strikes on the missile base at Khorramabad in Lorestan province, western Iran. The Israeli military said it struck this underground facility on Saturday and that it contained surface-to-surface and cruise missiles.
“This is an important site that was even featured in a propaganda video by the Iranian regime in the past,” IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told journalists.
Readers can get up to speed with the developments in the conflict in the previous 24 hours here.
Among the latest targets to be struck in Tehran are the headquarters of the Quds Force, the Israeli military says. In a statement on X, the IDF says that IAF fighter jets struck the Quds Force HQ, “guided by precise intelligence from the Intelligence Directorate. In these headquarters, Quds operatives planned terrorist operations against Israel through proxies of the Iranian regime in the Middle East.”
The Quds Force is the part of the IRGC responsible for conducting and coordinating terrorist and militant activities outside of Iran.
There have been more attacks on targets in Tehran in the last 24 hours.
Monday also saw Israeli officials release several vague warnings about further attacks to come in the Iranian capital.
In the afternoon, the IDF issued an evacuation warning for an area of Tehran, while Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declared that “the Iranian propaganda and incitement mouthpiece is on its way to disappear,” before noting that the “evacuation of nearby residents has begun.”
Initial reports suggest that Israel has already struck the designated target, the building belonging to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). The aftermath of the attack on this objective is seen in various videos posted to social media, including one where the on-air broadcast was interrupted by the strike.
After the attack, the IAF posted a statement on X claiming that the building was being used by the Iranian military as a communication center, under civilian cover.
There are also unconfirmed reports that Israel targeted the headquarters of the Basij in Tehran. A paramilitary volunteer militia, the Basij comes under the IRGC and is notorious for cracking down on public protests. Successive waves of unrest in Iran since the 1979 revolution have been dealt with by the Basij militia, serving as something like the shock troops of the Islamic regime.
Outside of the capital, the Tasnim news agency today reported an Israeli attack on a hospital in the west of the country, leaving it seriously damaged. The semi-official Fars news agency published footage that it claims shows the aftermath. Viewer discretion is advised for the following video.
Iranian media also reported an Israeli strike on a fire department building in the Musiyan municipality in the province of Ilam, also in western Iran.
In addition, the IDF says it struck around 100 military targets in Isfahan, central Iran.
One of the targets that the IDF apparently hasn’t hit in Isfahan is the stockpile of Iran’s enriched uranium. In the tweet thread below, Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in nuclear nonproliferation and a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, provides the likely explanation for this. Suffice it to say, Iran apparently stores the vital enriched uranium deep underground, at a depth of at least 300 feet. Israel, so far, has not been able to destroy the hardest, deeply buried targets.
Overall, Israeli strikes in Iran have killed 224 people since Friday, according to an Iranian Ministry of Health spokesperson.
Also noteworthy is IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin’s claim that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has now established “full aerial superiority” over the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Clearly, Israel launched its operation with the aim of degrading Iran’s air force and air defenses. Suppression and destruction of enemy air defense (SEAD/DEAD) sorties were emphasized from the start, and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) has been struck heavily on the ground. In the last couple of days, we’ve also had more evidence of IAF fighters roaming further east over Iran.
Iranian ballistic missiles are still coming down in Israel, meanwhile.
“A new wave of attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps… enabled missiles to successfully and effectively hit” targets in Israel, the Guards said in a statement quoted by the official IRNA news agency.
According to Israeli army radio, the death toll from Iranian attacks overnight stands at eight. An earlier statement from Israel’s Magen David Adom (MDA) emergency service said that 92 people had been injured in Iran’s latest missile strikes.
The following videos provide more evidence of Iranian ballistic missile salvoes headed toward targets in Israel:
Most of the casualties appear to have been from Iranian strikes on four sites in central Israel, where search and rescue operations were ongoing as of this morning.
The total number of people killed in Israel since Friday stands at 24, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s office and media reports.
In Tel Aviv, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee reported minor damage to the embassy branch as a result of an Iranian missile impacting nearby. In a post on X, Huckabee confirmed that no U.S. personnel had been injured, although the U.S. embassy and consulate in Israel will remain closed today.
As well as missiles coming from Iran, at least one missile was also fired overnight toward Israel by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen.
Israel’s military said that the Houthi missile came down before entering Israeli territory, although it’s unclear if it malfunctioned or if it was brought down by air defenses.
Yesterday, the Houthis confirmed that they had targeted Israel in coordination with Iran, the first time an Iran-aligned group publicly announced this kind of involvement in the current conflict.
The Yemeni group said that it had targeted Jaffa in central Israel with several ballistic missiles in the previous 24 hours.
“Triumphing for the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples,” Houthi military spokesperson Yehya Sarea said in a televised address.
There is new footage showing the results of Iranian attacks on Haifa. As of Monday, search and rescue operations were underway in the northern port city, where about 30 people were wounded, according to Israeli emergency authorities. Fires were reportedly burning at a power plant near the port after the latest attacks. Previously, Iran had targeted a refinery in the city.
An apparent Iranian drone only made it as far as Iraq before crashing or otherwise being brought down, according to reports.
An explosion occurred in Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, on Sunday night. Residents said this was caused by a drone, and images posted to social media appear to show a burning object falling to the ground. Alternatively, the object might have been an expended booster stage from an Iranian ballistic missile.
In response to the continued Iranian attacks on Israeli territory, Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz today warned that Tehran’s residents would “pay the price” for actions that targeted Israeli civilians.
“The boastful dictator from Tehran has turned into a cowardly murderer, deliberately firing at Israel’s civilian home front in an attempt to deter the [IDF] from continuing the offensive that is crippling his capabilities,” Katz wrote on his Telegram channel. “The residents of Tehran will pay the price — and soon.”
Katz then walked back those comments, stating that Israel has “no intention” of deliberately harming the residents of Tehran. “I wish to clarify the obvious: there is no intention to physically harm the residents of Tehran as the murderous dictator does to the residents of Israel,” Katz said. “The residents of Tehran will have to pay the price of dictatorship and evacuate their homes from areas where it will be necessary to attack regime targets and security infrastructures in Tehran.”
There are reports that Iran has executed an individual accused of spying for Israel. The semi-official Fars agency reported that the man was found guilty of spying for Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad. According to Reuters, this was the third such execution in recent weeks.
With speculation that U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers may be headed to the region, perhaps to directly support Israeli activities, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Iran doesn’t want the conflict to spill over into neighboring countries — unless forced to do so.
Araghchi pointed specifically to the Israeli strikes on the offshore South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar, describing them as “a blatant aggression and a very dangerous act.” The foreign minister warned Israel that “dragging the conflict to the Persian Gulf is a strategic mistake, and its aim is to drag the war beyond Iranian territory.”
Araghchi said he believed that the United States took part in the recent Israeli attacks, something that Washington has consistently denied.
“Israel’s attack would never have happened without the U.S. green light and support,” Araghchi said. “It is necessary for the United States to condemn Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if they want to prove their goodwill.”
More evidence is coming to light on the results of Israeli attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination at Natanz, the site of Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility, following Israeli strikes on Friday. However, the IAEA added that radiation levels outside the complex are currently normal.
On the other hand, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, a power loss after the attack on Natanz may have destroyed some of the roughly 14,000 underground centrifuges at the site. An Israeli official told the same publication that underground parts of the complex may have imploded, but this has not been verified, and this claim has been questioned by nuclear experts.
Today, Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said that there was “no indication of a physical attack” on the underground section of the Natanz uranium enrichment. This comes after satellite evidence confirmed destruction and/or damage to the plant’s above-ground section.
“There has been no indication of a physical attack on the underground cascade hall containing part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant,” Grossi said. “However, the loss of power to the cascade hall may have damaged the centrifuges there,” he added.
Grossi said there was no sign of damage at the Fordow enrichment site, which is buried beneath a mountain and which, as we discussed yesterday, doesn’t appear to have been struck so far.
A U.S. official has reportedly confirmed that Israel had an operational window to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, before U.S. President Donald Trump said he opposed such a move.
On X, Barak Ravid, a CNN political analyst and former IDF intelligence officer, claimed that the U.S. official told them:
“Since the operation commenced, the Israelis had an opportunity to kill the Supreme Leader. We communicated to the Israelis that President Trump is opposed to that. The Iranians haven’t killed an American, and discussion of killing political leaders should not be on the table.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and wants to restart talks over its nuclear programs. Unnamed officials in the Middle East and Europe told the WSJ that Tehran was sending messages to Israel and the United States via Arab intermediaries.
President Trump, meanwhile, warned that “Iran is not winning this war.” Speaking to journalists, Trump said that Tehran was trying to talk with Washington, but he suggested that such efforts might be too late.
“They’d like to talk, but they should have done that before,” Trump said. The president also didn’t rule out potential U.S. military involvement in the conflict. When asked what it would take for the United States to enter the conflict, his response was a terse “We’ll see.”
This is a developing story, and we will continue to update it as more information becomes available.
Update 4:20 PM Eastern –
As Israel and Iran continue to pummel each other, additional U.S. military assets are heading to the Middle East. That includes the USS Nimitz super carrier as well as an armada of refueling aircraft and what a U.S. official told us were “defensive forces” designed to give American commanders greater options. You can read more about that here.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News on Monday that killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would end the ongoing fighting and did not rule out an attempt on his life.
When asked by ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl about reports from ABC News and other outlets that President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, concerned that it would escalate the conflict, Netanyahu said, “It’s not going to escalate the conflict, it’s going to end the conflict.”
Asked if Israel would target the supreme leader, Netanyahu said that Israel was “doing what we need to do.”
“I’m not going to get into the details, but we’ve targeted their top nuclear scientists,” Netanyahu told the network. “It’s basically Hitler’s nuclear team.”
The IRGC claimed that in the past 72 hours, “we have continuously and without interruption targeted targets throughout the occupied territories with 545 attack drones, and these operations will continue,” the official Iranian Fars news agency stated.
Update: 6:55 PM Eastern –
The Trump administration told several Middle Eastern allies on Sunday that it doesn’t plan to get actively involved in this conflict unless Iran targets Americans, Axios is reporting, citing two sources from countries that received that U.S. message.
While Iranian leaders have threatened for weeks to target U.S. bases in the region, that has yet to happen.
“The Iranians are very careful so far not to do anything that can push the U.S. to get involved,” an Arab diplomat with direct knowledge of the thinking in Tehran told Axios.
Update: 8:24 PM Eastern –
Trump took to his Truth Social network to warn Iranians to evacuate Tehran.
“Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign,” he stated on Truth Social. “What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
Fox News reporter Lawrence Jones III stated on X that Trump will depart the G7 summit after dinner with the heads of those nations and that the National Security Council should be prepared to meet in the White House Situation Room.
Meanwhile, a U.S. official pushed back against online chatter that the U.S. is attacking Iran.
“We are still in a defense posture,” the official told The War Zone. ” To my knowledge, we are not striking Iran.”
Update: 8:30 PM Eastern –
“American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture & that has nto changed,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated on X. “We will protect American troops & our interests.”
Update: 9:03 PM Eastern –
Parnell definitively pushed back against claims that the U.S. was attacking Iran.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com