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Box Office: ‘Rise Of Skywalker’ Could Be The Leggiest ‘Star Wars’ Since ‘Phantom Menace’

This article is more than 4 years old.

The pre-release tracking pegs Lucasfilm and Walt Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker for a $180 million-$200 million opening weekend.

We’re getting pre-release tracking for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker this morning. And the first official numbers are pretty much as expected, with an opening weekend anywhere from Captain America: Civil War ($179 million) to Jurassic World ($208 million). Granted, The Last Jedi opened higher ($220 million compared to a $248 million launch for The Force Awakens) than presumed heading into its opening weekend, even if the rave pre-release reviews and solid Cinemascore grades were eventually overshadowed by a vocal (arguable) minority who really didn’t like the Rian Johnson flick. But I’m less interested in the opening weekend and more interested in the post-debut legs. Looking at the calendar as it exists, it has one big advantage over The Last Jedi in terms of legs.

As noted here and there, The Last Jedi had the bad luck to open in a year where the mid-December release didn’t lead directly to a holiday break period. Like Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, the only November Harry Potter film to not have its second weekend fall on Thanksgiving, The Last Jedi had to wait a week before the kids (and respective adults) were off for the Christmas-to-New Year’s break. That partially explained the merely okay post-debut legs over the first Mon-Thurs frame (1.26x its opening weekend) and the larger-than-hoped 67% second-weekend drop (from $220 million to $71 million). Never mind that it rallied a little after the break started for real, dropping just 27% in its third weekend.

Star Wars VIII ended up with $620 million domestic (and $1.332 billion worldwide) and pulled a “meh” (for a big Christmas opener) multiplier of 2.8x, the third shortest legs for a $200 million opener aside from the last two Avengers movies. But The Rise of Skywalker, aside from having the whole “the end of Star Wars” hook, will have its opening weekend lead directly into two weeks of weekdays that will play like weekends. Like The Force Awakens four years ago, The Rise of Skywalker won’t have a “normal” weekday until January 6, its 18th day of domestic play. Point being, The Rise of Skywalker could open noticeably below The Last Jedi and could still end up with longer legs and/or a larger domestic total.

For reference, The Force Awakens earned a whopping 3.77x its $248 million debut in 2015/2016, thanks to strong reviews, terrific buzz (hiding the whole “Rey is the special” turn in the marketing was a great way to build post-debut interest) and relatively weak kid-friendly competition (save for Daddy’s Home) in the aftermath of its release. The Last Jedi opened just before Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle shocked us all by legging it from a $35 million Fri-Sun ($77 million Wed-Mon) opening to $404 million domestic while The Greatest Showman pulled Titanic legs with a $184 million cume from a $13.5 million Wed-Sun debut. Comparatively, Jumanji: The Next Level opens a week before Star Wars (two weeks earlier in China) and Cats opens concurrently.

So, if folks show up and enjoy The Rise of Skywalker, it’ll only have Spies in Disguise (a Fox/Disney Blue Sky toon starring Will Smith and Tom Holland) and Sony’s Little Women to contend with on Christmas and New Year’s weekend. And with Wonder Woman 1984, Sonic the Hedgehog and No Time to Die fleeing November of 2019, the biggest potential pre-Star Wars competition, save for Disney’s own Frozen II, is now null-and-void. All of this means that it’s more likely that The Rise of Skywalker, presuming it sticks the landing, plays closer to the 3.4-3.6x multipliers of Rogue One and the first two Hobbit prequels versus Eragon and Last Jedi. If it really legs out, it could be the leggiest Star Wars movie since The Phantom Menace.

Revenge of the Sith earned $381 million from a $108 million Fri-Sun frame (it opened with a $50 million Thursday), which would be a 3.52x weekend-to-final multiplier. Attack of the Clones earned $80 million over its $110 million Thurs-Sun debut for an eventual (not counting the IMAX reissue) $302 million domestic cume, giving Episode II a 3.775x multiplier. The Force Awakens, partially thanks to Christmas legs, was leggier than the last two prequels. The Phantom Menace legged it to $431 million from a $64 million Fri-Sun frame and a $105 million Wed-Sun debut. If a 3.8x multiplier seems unlikely, Tron: Legacy earned $171 million from a $44 million debut in December of 2010 while Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows legged it to $186 million on a $38 million launch in December of 2011.

It’s just as likely that J.J. Abrams’ The Rise of Skywalker will be the least leggy Star Wars movie, think Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II which played strictly to the (huge) fanbase and earned just 2.25x its $169 million opening weekend in 2011. A 2.75x multiplier from a $200 million debut would still be around $550 million, or second only Avengers: Endgame in 2019 domestic earners. That said, it wouldn’t be a shock if the film opened on the “low” end of projections but legged out over the next month as word of mouth spread and/or folks checked it out at their convenience. That straight shot from opening day to mid-January, with all “holiday weekdays,” is going to be a huge advantage.

Even a $175 million opening with a 3.4x multiplier would be $595 million domestic, while a $210 million opening with a 3.6x multiplier would be $756 million domestic. Heck, a 3.78x multiplier (just above Force Awakens) from a $175 million launch would still be $661.5 million domestic, while a 2.8x multiplier from a $210 million launch would still be $588 million. There’s obviously lots of wiggle room in terms of how well it opens and how well it legs out. Come what may, a lower opening compared to The Last Jedi isn’t automatic cause for gloom-n-doom. And it’s possible, if not probable, that The Rise of Skywalker may open below its predecessors and still score the longest legs since The Phantom Menace 20 years ago.

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